Iran has extended the timeline for nuclear negotiations with the US, aiming to keep Donald Trump involved in the Iran conflict until the midterm elections.
Iran has outlined a protracted timetable for nuclear negotiations with the US, designed to keep Donald Trump engaged in the Iran conflict until the midterm elections. The strategy mirrors the political impact Jimmy Carter faced during the 1979-81 US embassy hostage crisis. Within Iran, inflicting political damage on Trump is viewed as a key objective, reflected in public sentiment following the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian officials have long distrusted the US, but this animosity has intensified toward Trump specifically. His actions, including the 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the 2020 killing of Qassem Suleimani, have deepened tensions. As the midterms approach, Iranian media closely monitor Trump’s declining approval ratings, linking them to the war’s unpopularity and rising oil prices. The deputy foreign minister stated that the second phase of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme will take two to four months to reach, following the agreement on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
To reach that second stage, Iran has laid out a series of conditions, including the lifting of sanctions, the end of the US blockade of Iranian ports, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and new commitments on non-belligerence. These steps could extend negotiations well beyond the midterms. If Tehran achieves its timetable, Trump will face the midterm elections without any Iranian commitment on nuclear weapons, only a costly economic burden from the war. Analysts suggest that the conflict may continue without resolution, with no true quiet before the midterms. Iranian media suggest that Trump’s political fortunes may be tied to the outcome of the midterms, with speculation about how the results could shape US domestic and foreign policy for years to come.
Why it matters
The timing of negotiations may influence the political trajectory of both Trump and Iran as the midterms approach.
This section reflects the Daily Dumpling editorial team's personal interpretation and is provided for general reference only.
What to watch
The extent to which Iran’s strategy affects Trump’s re-election prospects and the broader US-Iran relationship.
This section reflects the Daily Dumpling editorial team's personal interpretation and is provided for general reference only.
