Brazilians are voting in a highly unpredictable presidential runoff between leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who won the first-round vote despite not leading most polls.
The first-round election saw Lula, the incumbent president, lose to Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest for a 27-year sentence related to a coup attempt to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula. The gap between the two candidates was the narrowest ever recorded in a first round, at less than 2% of the vote.
Abstention reached a record high in the first round and disproportionately affects Lula’s voters, prompting him to focus on turnout during the runoff campaign. Bolsonaro, who has faced investigations over alleged corruption and money laundering, has seen his lead stagnate despite initial support from other defeated candidates. Lula, meanwhile, has benefited from student-led protests across the country.
Why it matters
Bolsonaro’s initial lead has narrowed, creating uncertainty about the outcome of the second round.
This section reflects Dumpling editorial interpretation and is provided for context only.
What to watch
Watch whether Lula’s confidence translates into increased voter turnout in the final days before the runoff.
This section reflects Dumpling editorial interpretation and is provided for context only.