Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are growing rapidly in weather and climate-related betting, raising concerns among climate experts.
Online prediction markets, previously focused on sports, cryptocurrency, and politics, are now expanding into weather and climate-related bets. Kalshi, a leading financial exchange, has partnered with the Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to verify weather-related betting outcomes. The company reports a 500% increase in weather and climate-related predictions over the past year, with the market valued at $1.1bn.
Users can bet on events such as daily temperatures, heatwaves, and the number of climate-fueled disasters in the US. Kalshi claims its markets can act as a financial hedge for businesses and influence weather forecasts. However, critics argue that turning climate-related disasters into a betting market risks dehumanizing the impacts of climate change and reducing public empathy.
Why it matters
Climate scientists are concerned that betting on climate-related events may reduce public empathy and obscure the human impact of climate change.
This section reflects Dumpling editorial interpretation and is provided for context only.
What to watch
Regulators and climate experts will monitor how these markets evolve and whether they influence public perception of climate disasters.
This section reflects Dumpling editorial interpretation and is provided for context only.