Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, stating, “one way or the other.”
Israel has long considered a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising concerns among nations in the Middle East, the United States, and Europe about the potential for such an action.
Recent reports indicate that U.S. and European officials believe Israel may be preparing for a possible attack, despite ongoing negotiations by the Trump administration aimed at reaching a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear ambitions.
An Israeli military strike could escalate into a regional conflict, potentially involving the United States, which has recently withdrawn some diplomats from the Middle East due to fears of Iranian retaliation. President Trump has cautioned Netanyahu against launching an attack, heightening tensions between the two leaders.
The current situation raises questions about whether the increased tensions signify a genuine Israeli military plan or are merely a strategy to influence U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Reasons for Potential Israeli Attack
Israel has consistently sought to thwart Iran, its primary adversary, from acquiring nuclear weapons. Since the Islamic Republic's establishment in the late 1970s, Iranian leaders have expressed intentions to eliminate Israel.
Analysts note that Iran's nuclear program has made significant advancements over the past decade, nearing the capability to produce enough material for ten nuclear weapons, although creating a functional bomb would take additional time.
On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran was not adhering to its nuclear nonproliferation commitments, marking the first such reprimand in two decades. Iran condemned this action, questioning the credibility of the agency.
Iran has been weakened following Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which sparked the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Both Hamas and Hezbollah, supported by Iran, have suffered significant losses in their confrontations with Israel.
Netanyahu has argued that Iran's current vulnerability presents a limited opportunity for Israel to act. He stated, “One way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” during a speech in April.
Iran has previously relied on Hezbollah's threat as a deterrent against Israeli strikes. However, after Hezbollah's recent attacks in solidarity with Hamas, Israel has effectively dismantled the group's leadership and inflicted heavy casualties on its fighters.
Israeli airstrikes against Iran's air defenses last year have reportedly diminished their capabilities, potentially allowing for a more successful military operation by Israeli forces. Analysts warn that delaying action could enable Iran to restore its defenses.
Status of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
Negotiators from the United States and Iran are scheduled to meet in Oman for a sixth round of discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The two nations remain at an impasse over Iran's uranium enrichment activities.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from a 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, labeling it “one-sided.” Currently, he appears to be seeking to avoid a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Trump has expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a successful deal, stating that Iran's negotiating position is “unacceptable.” He has repeatedly warned Netanyahu against attacking Iran while negotiations are ongoing, emphasizing the proximity to a potential resolution.
Historical Context of Israel-Iran Relations
Israel and Iran have been adversaries for decades, with Iran supporting various militia groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas, to exert pressure on Israel. Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria and targeted Iranian nuclear scientists as part of their ongoing conflict.
In recent months, their covert confrontations have escalated into open conflict, with Israel conducting airstrikes against Iranian security officials in Syria, prompting retaliatory drone and missile attacks from Iran.
Israel's military actions have successfully neutralized several Iranian air-defense systems, including those critical to Iran's nuclear program.
Possibility of an Independent Israeli Strike
While Israel possesses advanced military capabilities, analysts suggest that a successful strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure would be complex and likely require U.S. support.
Previous Israeli military strategies have depended on American backing, particularly for protection against anticipated Iranian retaliation. Israeli forces would need to cover significant distances to strike Iran, and a large-scale attack would challenge their logistical capabilities.
Experts indicate that completely dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities, many of which are fortified underground, would necessitate powerful munitions. The U.S. has thus far declined Israeli requests for its most potent “bunker-buster” bombs.
If an Israeli strike fails to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, it could lead to the program being further concealed, potentially resulting in Iran restricting access to nuclear inspectors.
Moreover, an attack could provoke Iran to accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons, a threshold it has historically refrained from crossing.