In the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has sought assistance from China, North Korea, and Iran, leading some officials in the U.S. and the U.K. to label this coalition as a new “axis.”
Despite their shared authoritarian governance and mutual hostility toward the United States, the collaboration among these nations has come under scrutiny. Iran's provision of drones and missiles to Russia, along with oil shipments to China, did not yield significant support when Iran faced military challenges, raising questions about the strength of their alliance.
Notably, during Iran's recent conflicts, neither China nor Russia provided substantial aid, highlighting the limitations of this supposed alliance. Alexander Gabuev from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center remarked that the lack of support from Russia and China during Iran's crises reveals the self-interest of these nations, which are reluctant to engage in each other's conflicts.
While the four countries share some strategic ties and have collaborated to undermine U.S.-led sanctions, experts suggest that their coordination is minimal and largely superficial. Michael Kimmage, a history professor, noted that while they share frustrations with the U.S., their cooperation lacks depth and significance.
Among these nations, only Russia and North Korea have a mutual defense treaty, with North Korea also providing military personnel to support Russian forces in Ukraine. Their historical ties date back to the Korean War, which involved China as well.
The relationship between China and Russia is particularly noteworthy, characterized by a strong bilateral partnership that has evolved over years. Despite their close ties, China has refrained from providing extensive military support to Russia, instead focusing on economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector.
In contrast, Iran's relationship with Russia is complicated by religious differences, as Iran's theocratic governance is viewed with suspicion by the secular regimes of Russia and China. This divergence in values complicates their alliance, as both Russia and China are wary of Islamic fundamentalism.
Recent diplomatic interactions have shown a reluctance from both Russia and China to fully commit to supporting Iran in its conflicts. For instance, during a recent meeting between Russian and Iranian officials, the discussions remained largely diplomatic without concrete commitments of support.
China's approach to the Iran-Israel conflict has been cautious, as it seeks to maintain its interests in the region, including strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. China's involvement in mediating relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia reflects its desire to position itself as a neutral broker in Middle Eastern affairs.
Experts suggest that while there is an alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea against U.S. influence, the lack of a mutual defense agreement indicates that their cooperation is limited. Chinese officials express skepticism about Iran's leadership and its ability to maintain stable international relations.
Following a cease-fire agreement between Iran and Israel, Iran's defense minister visited China for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement despite the complexities of their relationships.