President Trump has expressed a strong desire to negotiate a deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program, aiming to prevent conflict and set aside Israeli proposals for a military campaign. During a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, he stated, “I want to make a deal with Iran. If I can make a deal with Iran, I’ll be very happy, if we’re going to make your region and the world a safer place.”
His trip to the Gulf Arab states highlighted a shift in regional attitudes, as Gulf leaders, previously aligned against Iran, are now seeking rapprochement to avoid further instability amidst ongoing conflicts, such as in Gaza. Arab leaders have consistently urged Trump to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran, emphasizing the dire consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran or military action against it.
Negotiating a deal with Iran poses challenges for Trump, particularly from the more hardline factions within the Republican Party, who have long demanded the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program. A letter signed by over 200 congressional Republicans urged Trump to maintain a firm stance against Iran.
The U.S. and its allies are concerned that a nuclear-capable Iran could trigger an arms race in the Middle East, increasing the risk of miscalculations among rival nations. Trump has also indicated that military action remains a possibility if negotiations fail, stating, “We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this.”
Progress in talks has been reported, with Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, providing Iran with a framework for a potential agreement. However, Iran's foreign minister has denied receiving any formal proposal from the U.S. Significant differences remain, particularly regarding uranium enrichment, which Iran insists it has the right to conduct for civilian purposes under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Iran has indicated a willingness to cease higher-level enrichment used for weapons but maintains its right to enrich for civilian use. This position mirrors concessions made in the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump criticized and withdrew from in 2018, reinstating sanctions on Iran.
Witkoff is exploring creative solutions to address both sides' concerns over enrichment, including a potential long-term freeze on Iranian enrichment under enhanced international oversight. Experts suggest that sanctions could be lifted in phases, and U.S. corporate investment in Iran might help build trust and deter future conflict.
Iran is likely to seek assurances that the U.S. will uphold any new agreement, especially after Trump's previous withdrawal from the 2015 deal. Observers note that Iran may view Trump's recent decision to lift sanctions on Syria as a precedent for potential future dealings.
Trump faces dissent from neoconservative factions within his party who advocate for complete denuclearization of Iran. Analysts suggest that while Trump aims for a deal, he may settle for less than full compliance, which could challenge the Republican Party's future foreign policy direction.
If Witkoff and Iranian officials can establish foundational principles for a deal, the technical negotiations could take months, involving the International Atomic Energy Agency for inspections. The timeline for resuming talks remains uncertain.
Iran has also revived a proposal for a consortium of Muslim states to manage nuclear enrichment, including Saudi Arabia, which seeks to develop its own civilian nuclear program. However, such an arrangement would conflict with Trump’s demand for a halt to Iranian enrichment and raise concerns about dependency on Iran for nuclear fuel.