The radiological threat from the targets of the earliest attacks is considered relatively minor. Strikes on nuclear facilities could potentially release harmful radiation, but recent attacks by Israel on Iran have not resulted in such outcomes.
The initial targets of these attacks appear to rule out the most dangerous scenarios, limiting possible radiation threats to less severe levels. The most significant risks would stem from successful strikes on nuclear reactors, where the splitting of atoms in reactor fuel can lead to the accumulation of highly radioactive byproducts, including Cesium 137, Strontium 90, and Iodine 131.
Inhalation or ingestion of Iodine 131 can lead to its accumulation in the thyroid gland, significantly increasing the risk of thyroid cancer, especially in children. Other isotopes can also contribute to cancer risks. However, there have been no reports indicating that Iran's nuclear reactors were targeted in the Israeli attacks, with key facilities such as a power plant on the Persian Gulf, a research reactor in Tehran, and the heavily fortified Arak complex remaining unharmed.
The Arak facility, long suspected of being designed to produce plutonium, was rendered unusable for that purpose following the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. In recent years, Iran has shifted its focus to uranium, developing various industrial plants to refine this fissile material.
Uranium ore is relatively harmless, but it contains trace amounts of the radioactive isotope Uranium 235, which can be used for nuclear reactors and weapons. The enrichment process aims to increase the percentage of U-235, which Iran has progressively done, currently achieving levels of 60 percent, just below bomb-grade.
Higher levels of U-235 pose greater health risks due to the radiation emitted, including alpha, beta, and gamma rays. While alpha and beta particles are less harmful, gamma rays can penetrate the body and damage DNA, increasing cancer risk. The Israeli strikes reportedly targeted the Natanz complex, where the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant was destroyed, resulting in visible damage and smoke.
While some smoke may have contained U-235 particles, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported no immediate danger to public health or the environment. The agency's director general stated that radiation levels outside the Natanz site remained normal, indicating no external radiological impact from the event.
Concerns were raised about alpha particles within the Natanz facility, but these were deemed manageable with proper safety measures. The IAEA acknowledged attacks on other nuclear sites in Iran but indicated a lack of sufficient information regarding their status.
In addition to radiation concerns, uranium is a toxic heavy metal that can cause various health issues, particularly affecting the kidneys. Exposure routes include ingestion of contaminated food and water, inhalation of dust, and skin contact. Inhalation of uranium dust can lead to respiratory problems over time.
Diplomats have expressed concerns about the potential radiological consequences of the Israeli strikes, with warnings about the implications for both the Middle East and global safety. Russia's representative to the U.N. highlighted the threats to the health and safety of IAEA personnel in Iran and called for an objective assessment of the situation.