On Sunday, Rwanda’s foreign minister announced that the country is in “early stage” discussions with the Trump administration regarding a potential agreement to accept migrants deported from the United States.
This development resonates with the situation in Britain, where a former Conservative-led government finalized a deal in 2022 to permanently deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. However, after two years and significant financial investment, the plan faced obstacles that hindered its implementation.
Britain's highest court determined that the proposal violated human rights law, prompting the Conservative government to attempt new legislation to circumvent the ruling. Ultimately, the policy was deemed largely ineffective, leading to its cancellation by the newly elected Labour government, which cited high costs and impracticality.
The British experience may offer insights for the Trump administration moving forward. The program in Britain cost approximately £715 million (around $955 million), which officials claimed would deter illegal migration.
In addition to £290 million paid directly to the Rwandan government, funds were allocated for deportation flights, preparing detention facilities, IT systems, staffing, and legal costs. However, only four migrants were ultimately sent to Rwanda, and they did so voluntarily, receiving £3,000 each for their participation.
Official reports indicate this expenditure was a small portion of what the costs would have been if the plan had been fully operationalized. The British government had committed to paying Rwanda £150,000 for each deported individual, which would cover a comprehensive five-year “integration package” including accommodation, food, medical services, and education.
After the plan's cancellation, Rwanda indicated it would not return any funds, as there was no reimbursement clause. Labour home secretary Yvette Cooper stated that the Conservatives had projected expenses exceeding £10 billion over six years for the Rwanda policy.
The Conservative government contended that the expenditure was justified, arguing that potential deportations would deter illegal crossings of the English Channel.
Another consideration is Rwanda’s capacity to absorb a significant influx of deportees. The country spans approximately 10,000 square miles, comparable to Massachusetts, and is known for its high population density.
The Trump administration has not disclosed the number of individuals it would seek to deport to Rwanda, which has previously expressed concerns about its capacity for accepting large numbers of asylum seekers. During a British Supreme Court hearing, a government lawyer acknowledged the initial limitations of Rwanda's capacity and the necessity for “capacity building.”
Reports suggested a maximum of 1,000 individuals could have been transferred from Britain to Rwanda over five years, while in 2022, at least 45,000 individuals arrived in Britain via small boats.
A historical perspective reveals that Rwanda has engaged in several migration agreements, including a controversial treaty with Israel. Under this deal, Eritrean and Sudanese asylum seekers deported from Israel were promised consideration of their claims and assurances of human rights protections. However, it was later discovered that many were covertly transferred to Uganda.
The Rwandan government has not yet responded to requests for comment regarding the current discussions.
Legal challenges are also anticipated. The Trump administration has previously demonstrated a willingness to challenge court rulings, having defied orders to return individuals wrongfully deported to a notorious prison in El Salvador.
In Britain, the proposed plan ultimately failed partly due to violations of domestic laws protecting human rights and the United Nations Refugee Convention. The agreement mandated that Rwanda process asylum applications for undocumented migrants, with the stipulation that recognized refugees would be resettled in Rwanda permanently, without the option to return to Britain.
The British Supreme Court ruled the plan unlawful in November 2023, citing the significant risk of genuine refugees being sent back to their home countries and potentially facing danger.