A tight presidential election in Poland this weekend is significantly influenced by young voters, a demographic that holds considerable stakes in the country's future direction.
However, the two candidates in the runoff election on Sunday face a major challenge: young Poles largely do not favor either candidate. This discontent adds to the unpredictability of an election viewed as crucial for the future of Poland, the largest economic and military power in the European Union's former communist bloc. It is also vital for centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk's efforts to dismantle the legacy of his populist predecessor.
In the first round of voting on May 18, voters aged 18 to 29 predominantly supported anti-establishment candidates who did not advance to the runoff. They largely rejected the candidates representing Poland's two main political parties—Civic Platform, led by Tusk, and Law and Justice, the former governing party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The runoff features Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw backed by Tusk's party, against Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and former boxer supported by Law and Justice. This election follows a recent presidential election in Romania, where voters opted for a centrist candidate over a hard-right supporter of former President Trump, drawing attention to Poland's vote as a test of right-wing populism's resilience.
Young Polish voters perceive the election as a frustrating repetition of a long-standing political struggle rather than a decisive left-right battle. Many express disillusionment with the established political system, with a significant portion of young voters indicating they may abstain from voting in the runoff.
Tusk and Kaczynski, both veteran politicians, have been influential figures in Polish politics for over 40 years, navigating the country through its post-communist transition. Their rivalry has entrenched Polish politics in a cycle of conflict, with accusations and counter-accusations characterizing their campaigns.
Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round, but his chances of success in the runoff depend heavily on the turnout and preferences of young voters who previously supported fringe candidates. Political analysts note a growing volatility in Polish politics, particularly among younger voters, who are increasingly disenchanted with the traditional party system.
Despite the presidency's limited policy-making power, its veto authority has allowed the outgoing president, an ally of Kaczynski, to obstruct much of Tusk's agenda. A victory for Nawrocki could lead to continued political stalemate, complicating Tusk's governance and impacting his party's prospects in the next parliamentary election.
Young voters' disenchantment was evident in mock elections held in high schools, where candidates outside the mainstream parties garnered significant support. This trend reflects a broader sentiment among the youth, who feel disconnected from the established political landscape.
While some younger voters express a preference for candidates like Trzaskowski, uncertainty remains regarding the support for Nawrocki among those who backed fringe candidates. Recent polls suggest that a majority of these voters may lean towards Nawrocki, potentially influencing the election's outcome.
The shift away from established parties has frustrated older generations, who urge young voters to reconsider their choices in light of the democratic freedoms they currently enjoy. The upcoming runoff will be closely monitored as a reflection of the evolving political landscape in Poland.