
In a recent speech at the Arms Control Association's annual meeting, Pranay Vaddi, a senior director of the National Security Council, issued a warning that the United States may need to expand its nuclear arsenal if China and Russia do not change their nuclear strategies. This warning comes as a response to China's rapid nuclear expansion and Russia's threats to use tactical nuclear weapons. The potential expiration of the New START agreement in 2026 without a replacement has further heightened concerns. The United States has historically focused on modernizing its nuclear arsenal rather than expanding it, but the changing nuclear landscape has prompted a shift in strategy. The Biden administration remains open to arms control agreements but acknowledges the remote prospects of new deals. Efforts to engage China in arms control talks have been met with limited success, and the potential coordination of nuclear policies between Russia and China adds further complexity to the situation. Vaddi emphasized that modernizing the American nuclear arsenal could incentivize Russia and China to return to the negotiating table and strengthen Washington's position in future talks. The administration aims to persuade adversaries that managing rivalry through arms control is preferable to unrestrained competition. The article highlights the evolving nuclear dynamics and the United States' response to the changing strategies of China and Russia, emphasizing the potential need to expand the nuclear arsenal if current trajectories persist.