President Trump has expressed a clear intention to disrupt the existing global economic order, achieving notable progress within his first 100 days in office.
His administration has initiated a trade war, abandoned international treaties, and indicated a potential withdrawal of U.S. defense commitments to Europe, while dismantling established governmental structures that possess critical expertise.
Despite these significant changes, the global landscape remains dynamic. Upcoming midterm elections could threaten the Republican majority in Congress, and Trump's presidency, limited to four years, raises questions about the potential for a future president to reverse his policies.
Experts suggest that certain transformations initiated by Trump may prove difficult to revert, such as the erosion of trust in the United States, which took generations to build.
According to Ian Goldin, a professor at the University of Oxford, the underlying issues that fueled the "Make America Great Again" movement, including economic insecurity and inequality, will persist beyond Trump's tenure. This ongoing situation raises concerns about the emergence of future leaders with similar ideologies.
Consequently, U.S. allies are seeking to establish trade partnerships and security alliances that do not involve the United States. Recently, the European Union and South American countries formed one of the largest trade zones globally.
In a related move, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has proposed developing new transport networks to connect with global markets independent of the U.S., while Canada negotiates military agreements with Europe to reduce reliance on American defense systems. Meanwhile, the U.K. and the EU work towards finalizing a defense pact.
Experts observe that the world is adapting, with supply chains reorganizing and new partnerships forming, as foreign talent and researchers seek opportunities outside the U.S. Goldin remarks that America will not quickly regain its economic status.
Trump’s actions are also perceived to embolden authoritarian regimes globally, further eroding the established rules-based international order.
Moreover, the administration’s disdain for international institutions appears to enhance China’s influence, with Xi Jinping positioned to leverage Trump’s protectionist strategies to promote Beijing as a leader in free trade.
This strategy resonates particularly well with emerging economies in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, where U.S. disengagement could allow China to strengthen its foothold. The U.S. Agency for International Development has faced significant budget cuts, affecting aid to the world's poorest, while China continues to invest heavily in Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Trump’s approach could also undermine efforts to restrict advanced technology from reaching China, as cooperative relations with allies have diminished.
In Southeast Asia, countries facing potential tariffs on exports have found room to fortify ties with China, enhancing its influence in the region.
The sharp reduction in federal funding for research and development threatens America's scientific prowess, as the government finances a significant portion of basic research essential for technological advancements. Cuts to grants have resulted in a loss of expertise and talent in critical sectors.
Concerns grow about a potential brain drain, as researchers look elsewhere for opportunities and academic freedom. The dismantling of key government structures makes it challenging to quickly restore lost networks and capabilities.
Experts emphasize that Trump’s agenda has been transformative, focusing not only on policy changes but also on altering foundational institutions. Even if Democrats regain control, the feasibility of reconstructing these systems remains uncertain.
While historical moments, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall, signify shifts in eras, it is difficult to predict the long-term impacts of current stresses on the international system.
Drawing comparisons with the "Nixon shock" of 1971, which disrupted fixed exchange rates and led to global market chaos, analysts note that alliances persisted despite turmoil. The current concern is whether Americans support the previous international order or wish to see it dismantled as part of the broader discontent with the global economy.