<div><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2026/06/23/multimedia/23iran-strategy-01-klmj/23iran-strategy-01-klmj-facebookJumbo.jpg" class="ff-og-image-inserted"></div><p id="article-summary" class="css-1r45aqf evqizr60">Iran and the United States are approaching negotiations with fatigue and limited options, but analysts say a deal may be increasingly necessary for both sides despite deep mistrust and a history of failed mediation.</p><section name="articleBody" class="meteredContent css-1a6yhas" data-paywall-inert><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-0"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Regional experts note a renewed readiness by both sides to pursue talks in good faith after previous attempts failed and amid sustained pressure to make progress.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Initial optimism waned during the Switzerland negotiations, which brought together delegations led by a U.S. vice president and Iran’s parliamentary speaker, amid longstanding mutual suspicion.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">To date, negotiators have struggled to present a unified framework, with divergent public portrayals of the talks by each side.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Nevertheless, some analysts say both Tehran and Washington have a growing need for concessions and progress.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">“All of the other options have simply been exhausted,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert, adding that a positive trend may emerge.</p></div></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-1"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-1"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">History shows the U.S. has previously pursued hard-line strategies, including military options, but those approaches led to broader regional and energy crises when tested.</p></div></div><div data-testid="ImageBlock-3"><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="img-sz-large css-hxpw2c e1gx6hox0" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xdhyk6 e1acqrl40" data-testid="photoviewer-children-figure"><div class="css-nwd8t8" data-testid="lazy-image"><div data-testid="lazyimage-container" style="height:217.82222222222222px"></div></div></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-caption" class="css-1g9ic6e e1o75wsu0"><span class="css-1n49vpa e3zar750">Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and gas.</span><span class="css-iwa86d ecmr7cu0"><span><span aria-hidden="false">Reuters</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-2"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Iran has endured significant leadership losses and economic strain, motivating its new leadership to seek stability and a path forward despite pressures from sanctions and domestic unrest.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">A major hurdle remains: Iran has tied its participation to cease-fire dynamics in Lebanon and other regional alignments, raising questions about the durability of any potential agreement.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">The core objectives remain divergent—capping Iran’s nuclear program for Washington and sanctions relief for Tehran.</p></div></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-5"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-3"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Analysts note that political momentum for a deal may extend beyond a 60-day window, with negotiations likely extending for months given the complexity and need for verification.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">A past, multi-year track record of negotiations underscores the difficulty, but current conditions may create a window for gradual progress.</p></div></div><div data-testid="ImageBlock-7"><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="img-sz-large css-hxpw2c e1gx6hox0" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xdhyk6 e1acqrl40" data-testid="photoviewer-children-figure"><div class="css-nwd8t8" data-testid="lazy-image"><div data-testid="lazyimage-container" style="height:257.77777777777777px"></div></div></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-caption" class="css-1g9ic6e e1o75wsu0"><span class="css-1n49vpa e3zar750">Vice President JD Vance led a U.S. delegation to negotiations in Switzerland.</span><span class="css-iwa86d ecmr7cu0"><span><span aria-hidden="false">Pool photo by Nathan Howard</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-4"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Experts emphasize that progress may hinge on how each side presents concessions and manages domestic audiences, with both sides publicly portraying the other as making more concessions.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">U.S. leadership has publicly claimed gains in inspections, while Iran has disputed such claims, highlighting the ongoing dispute over verification and compliance.</p></div></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-9"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-5"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Analysts caution that disagreements over nuclear material and potential undisclosed inventories could be a major flashpoint, potentially amplifying tensions if not resolved.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Public messaging from both sides maintains a stance that the other side is making necessary concessions, underscoring the sensitivity of the process.</p></div></div><div data-testid="ImageBlock-13"><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="img-sz-large css-hxpw2c e1gx6hox0" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xdhyk6 e1acqrl40" data-testid="photoviewer-children-figure"><div class="css-nwd8t8" data-testid="lazy-image"><div data-testid="lazyimage-container" style="height:257.77777777777777px"></div></div></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-caption" class="css-1g9ic6e e1o75wsu0"><span class="css-1n49vpa e3zar750">The Iranian delegation included top officials in negotiations.</span><span class="css-iwa86d ecmr7cu0"><span><span aria-hidden="false">Pool photo by Urs Flueeler</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-7"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Experts suggest that both sides’ positions may reflect domestic constraints and strategic signaling aimed at broader audiences, rather than pure negotiation leverage.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Analysts note that leadership within Iran faces pressure from hard-liners, while U.S. leadership must demonstrate the costs of continuing the status quo and the rationale for concessions.</p></div></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-15"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-8"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Public opinion inside Iran remains volatile, and observers say the regime may frame talks as a popular demand to win domestic support while seeking to avoid concessions that could provoke backlash.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Some observers point to recent pragmatic signals, including sanctions relief steps and a more flexible posture from the U.S., as indicators that a potential path toward dialogue exists.</p></div></div><div data-testid="ImageBlock-17"><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="img-sz-large css-hxpw2c e1gx6hox0" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xdhyk6 e1acqrl40" data-testid="photoviewer-children-figure"><div class="css-nwd8t8" data-testid="lazy-image"><div data-testid="lazyimage-container" style="height:257.77777777777777px"></div></div></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-caption" class="css-1g9ic6e e1o75wsu0"><span class="css-1n49vpa e3zar750">In southern Lebanon, a test of the United States’ ability to influence regional security dynamics.</span><span class="css-iwa86d ecmr7cu0"><span><span aria-hidden="false">David Guttenfelder/The New York Times</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-18"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-9"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Before a vote on talks with the United States, Iran’s security council required a two-thirds majority, a move analysts say could help portray hard-liners as marginal, though it may complicate the negotiating process.</p><p class="css-140ip4z e1me5xab0">Despite ongoing doubts about a final agreement, some observers see a cautious horizon for potential rapprochement in the near term.</p></div></div></section>
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