President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is moving forward with intensified military actions in Ukraine, regardless of President Trump’s expressed disappointment, as he anticipates potential new pressures from the U.S., according to analysts and sources close to the Kremlin.
Putin believes that Russia’s military dominance is increasing and that Ukraine’s defenses may falter in the coming months. According to the sources, he sees no reason to halt hostilities without substantial concessions from Ukraine.
“He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
This assertive stance from Putin marks a significant change from earlier this year when Trump, upon taking office, sought to improve relations with Moscow and proposed an expedited resolution to the Ukraine conflict.
Putin’s strategy leverages recent military gains while Ukraine grapples with manpower shortages, leading to heightened Russian military ambitions.
As Trump publicly expresses his frustrations with Putin, it is evident that the Russian leader is willing to jeopardize his relationship with the U.S. president to pursue his primary objective: Ukraine’s capitulation to his demands.
Recent remarks made by Trump reflect his dissatisfaction, indicating that despite several discussions with Putin and diplomatic efforts, Russia's aggression in Ukraine has only escalated.
“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump commented. He acknowledged that while Putin has presented himself favorably, it has not resulted in any tangible outcomes regarding Ukraine.
Putin has attempted to maintain a cordial rapport, proposing business ventures and offering Russia as a neutral mediator while simultaneously failing to provide significant concessions regarding Ukraine, as noted by Trump.
In light of Trump's frustrations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov downplayed the situation, expressing an intention to continue dialogue with Washington despite the current tensions.
Sources close to the Kremlin indicate that Putin has anticipated changes in Trump's temper and is prepared for the possibility of new sanctions, particularly after a period of no new measures from the U.S. concerning the conflict.
Analysts suggest that while Putin shows an interest in maintaining a personal relationship with Trump, he remains aware of the unpredictable nature of U.S. foreign policy.
Despite Trump's threats of sanctions, his actions have not yet translated into increased military support for Ukraine, leaving the balance of power largely unchanged. Observers note that Putin may still foresee an opportunity for sanctions relief in future negotiations.
Putin's objectives extend beyond merely controlling captured territories; he aims to limit NATO's expansion, enforce Ukraine's neutrality, and ensure the protection of the Russian language in Ukraine.
While Putin is reportedly satisfied with his interactions with Trump, he faces limitations in negotiating terms favorably aligned with his goals for Ukraine. Trump’s refusal to disentangle U.S.-Russia relations from the conflict presents a significant roadblock for the Kremlin.
Experts suggest that if Trump were in a position to offer extensive concessions regarding NATO and European military infrastructure, Putin might show greater flexibility on Ukraine. However, that scenario appears unlikely at present.