In early November, President Trump issued a warning regarding the BRICS nations—a group comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—stating that any country aligning with BRICS' anti-American policies would face an additional 10% tariff. The response from BRICS members has largely been one of defiance, particularly from Brazil's president, who has criticized Trump's approach as emperor-like amidst escalating trade tensions.
India, however, takes a distinct position within the group. As the most populous country and a founding member of BRICS, it seeks to mitigate China's influence in global affairs. India's Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, emphasized the nation's lack of interest in undermining the U.S. dollar, a sentiment echoed amidst Trump's threats of substantial tariffs on countries contemplating a move away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Former Indian ambassador Mohan Kumar highlighted India's commitment to maintaining the dollar's dominance while simultaneously preventing the Chinese renminbi from overtaking it. Moreover, India has strengthened its military ties with the United States, adopting American weaponry and participating in the Quad alliance with Japan and Australia, aimed at countering Chinese military expansion.
As the global trade landscape becomes increasingly strained, India faces a challenging diplomatic balancing act. Threatened with a potential 26% tariff from the U.S., the Indian government is under pressure to negotiate a deal prior to a looming deadline of August 1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration must navigate relations with both BRICS partners and the United States, all while facing domestic criticism from opposition parties for his handling of trade negotiations.
The concept of BRICS originated from a 2001 research paper by economist Jim O'Neill, who proposed the four largest emerging economies not included in the G7 as a collective investment opportunity. Over time, these nations began to formalize their interactions, despite their varied political and military histories.
The rise of China's economic and geopolitical power has significantly influenced BRICS dynamics, with India’s relationship with China being notably intricate. Recent border clashes in 2020 resulted in casualties, further complicating India's position. As Brazil's Paulo Nogueria Batista Jr. noted, India is perceived as an outlier within BRICS due to its close ties with the U.S. and Israel, causing concerns about its role within the group.
India's historical inclination towards nonalignment persists, as the country maintains memberships in both the U.S.-led Quad and China-aligned Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Amidst these geopolitical complexities, India's trade delegation is actively seeking to finalize negotiations with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs, aiming for a favorable position against China.
As the upcoming BRICS summit approaches, India is poised to reaffirm its commitment to the group, with Prime Minister Modi preparing to host the event next year, signaling a continued engagement in international collaboration.