Russia's collaboration with China, North Korea, and Iran during its conflict with Ukraine prompted discussions around a potential new "axis" among the four nations, characterized by shared opposition to the United States and its allies.
However, recent events raised questions about the strength and unity of this alliance, particularly concerning Iran's drone and missile sales to Russia and its oil trade with China, which did not yield expected support when Iran faced conflicts such as its war with Israel. Notably, neither China nor Russia provided substantial assistance to Iran during these times, undermining the concept of a unified front.
Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center emphasized that the anticipated support from Russia and China for Iran did not materialize, highlighting the individualistic and self-interested nature of these nations. He noted that the countries do not share the same values or structures, contrasting them with the United States and its allies.
Despite their authoritarian regimes and shared animosity toward the West, the nations have shown limited meaningful coordination. Michael Kimmage, a former State Department official, remarked that their interactions might reflect common frustrations but lack significant strategic implications.
Among this group, only Russia and North Korea hold a mutual defense treaty, with North Korea providing military assistance to Russia through troop deployments in Ukraine. Their solidarity stems from a shared historical context and ideological ties dating back to conflicts in the mid-20th century.
The relationship between Russia and China is pivotal, given their historical cooperation, especially following the announcement of a "no limits" partnership shortly before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, China has avoided sending substantial arms to Russia, opting instead to support Russia's defense industrial base and remain a prominent purchaser of Russian oil.
In contrast, the dynamics between Iran and the other three nations are complicated by religious and ideological differences, as the secular governments of Russia and China are wary of Iran's theocratic governance. This concern extends to their perceptions of Islamic extremism.
Historian Sergey Radchenko pointed out the contradictions in relationships among these countries, especially highlighting Putin's pragmatic approach to prioritizing ties with Iran's neighbors over steadfast support for Iran.
Efforts by Putin to mediate between Iran and Israel have been cautious, with expressions of support for Iran often lacking substantial commitment. Subsequent to a U.S. airstrike on Iran, the Iranian foreign minister's meeting with Putin yielded standard diplomatic language without definitive assurances of aid.
China's response has similarly been measured, calling for de-escalation but refraining from direct support for Iran amid ongoing regional conflicts. The nation maintains relationships with Middle Eastern states that are in rivalry with Iran.
China’s balancing act in the region, including recent diplomatic efforts to foster rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, has illustrated a desire to remain a neutral player while securing its economic interests.
Analysts suggest that although an alignment exists among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, it does not equate to a cohesive or binding partnership. While these nations may engage in cooperative endeavors against Western influence, apprehensions about Iran's leadership and effectiveness temper China's support for Tehran.
Recent developments included Iran's defense minister visiting China for a security group meeting, signaling an ongoing if cautious engagement amidst a complex international landscape.