The Trump administration has proposed a diplomatic arrangement that would permit Iran to continue low-level uranium enrichment while a detailed plan is negotiated to prevent the nation from developing nuclear weapons. This proposal aims to serve as a transitional solution, allowing Iran to maintain access to nuclear fuel for power plants while working towards the U.S. objective of halting all uranium enrichment within the country.
According to the outline of the potential deal, which was disclosed by Iranian and European officials, the U.S. would assist in constructing nuclear power reactors in Iran and negotiate the establishment of enrichment facilities managed by a consortium of regional countries. However, Iran would need to cease all domestic enrichment activities upon receiving benefits from this arrangement.
This proposal marks a significant moment since President Trump took office, indicating a potential pathway towards diplomatic compromise to avert escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear aspirations. Nevertheless, the details of the arrangement remain unclear, and the two parties are far from reaching an agreement, with complex domestic political considerations affecting both sides.
The initial years of this proposed arrangement could see Iran enriching uranium at low levels while new enrichment facilities are developed in collaboration with Arab states. This is in contradiction to Trump's recent statements affirming that the U.S. would not allow any uranium enrichment, leading to speculation about his comments relating to future stages of the deal.
The establishment of a regional consortium is aimed at integrating Iran with neighboring countries, potentially including the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, to produce low-grade nuclear fuel while ensuring that Iran does not independently enrich uranium for weapons purposes. However, a major unresolved issue is whether Iran's leadership will accept a final deal that prohibits nuclear fuel production on its soil.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, expressed optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough, asserting that the country would respond appropriately to the U.S. proposal. Meanwhile, skepticism persists, particularly from Israel, which has voiced concerns over any arrangement that might allow Iran to retain nuclear capabilities.
Israel has hinted at the possibility of military action against Iranian nuclear sites, underlining the ongoing tensions in the region. In response to potential military threats, Iranian officials have warned of a strong reaction, including withdrawing from the nonproliferation treaty.
The proposal lacks clarity on the specifics of dismantling Iran's nuclear program, which poses a challenge given the significant investment Iran has made in its nuclear capabilities. Iranian officials express concern about the implications of dismantling their facilities, which are a source of national pride and employ many skilled scientists.
While the proposal hints at U.S. support for constructing additional nuclear reactors in Iran, it does not specify which sanctions would be lifted in a final agreement. Iranian officials have stated that all sanctions must be removed to consider any deal, not just those related to the nuclear program.
In the backdrop of these discussions, Iranian officials have expressed distrust toward the U.S. following Trump's withdrawal from the previous nuclear deal, leading to doubts regarding future compliance from American leadership.
The proposal suggests a consortium that would provide nuclear fuel for Iran and neighboring states interested in developing civilian nuclear energy. However, its logistics remain ambiguous, as the U.S. has asserted that enrichment must not occur on Iranian soil, which conflicts with Iran's insistence on maintaining its right to enrich under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
While some Iranian officials have signaled openness to the consortium concept, hardline politicians within Iran oppose any concessions, viewing the U.S. proposal as a defeat. However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has authorized continued negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement.
Analysts have described the consortium idea as potentially advantageous, allowing Iran to maintain dignity while involving regional partners and U.S. inspectors in its nuclear activities, thus alleviating concerns about a regional arms race. However, significant negotiation remains necessary to resolve foundational disagreements, particularly regarding Iran's right to enrich uranium.