Policymakers in various countries have traditionally assumed that declining birthrates are a result of individuals choosing to have fewer children. However, a recent global study by the United Nations Population Fund suggests that financial insecurity is a significant factor influencing these decisions.
Countries such as Vietnam and China have recently altered their family planning policies, with Vietnam abandoning its two-child limit and China promoting a three-child policy. Meanwhile, the Russian government is addressing child-free lifestyles, and the White House is considering baby bonuses to encourage higher birthrates.
The U.N. report, published on Tuesday, argues that governments are operating under a “fertility fallacy,” mistakenly believing that young people do not desire children or wish to have fewer than in the past. Instead, the report highlights that financial security is a critical concern for many when contemplating parenthood.
In a survey conducted across 14 countries on four continents, the report found that many individuals have or expect to have fewer children than they initially desired due to economic concerns. The report states, “It is often assumed or implied that fertility rates are the result of free choice. Unfortunately, that is not the whole picture.”
Experts argue that the focus on increasing birthrates often overlooks the underlying economic conditions that lead individuals to doubt their ability to raise children securely. The report challenges the narrative that blames younger generations, particularly women, for declining birthrates due to lifestyle choices.
According to Karen Guzzo, a family demographer, the survey indicates that people want children but feel that the current conditions are not conducive to raising them. The report raises questions about whether improving overall quality of life, rather than directly targeting birthrates, may be a more effective approach to increasing fertility.
The findings are based on a survey of approximately 14,000 individuals from countries including Brazil, Germany, India, and the United States, which collectively represent over a third of the global population. Researchers noted common concerns across different regions, with individuals in both India and the U.S. expressing similar worries about financial stability when considering parenthood.
Among adults over 50, nearly a third reported having fewer children than they ideally wanted, while about one in nine individuals under 50 expect to have fewer children than desired. The report indicates that very few people anticipate having more children than they want.
Demographers emphasize that while the connection between financial stability and family size may seem evident, the report quantifies this understanding. They argue that short-term incentives, such as baby bonuses, do not effectively address the persistent structural issues that impact family planning, including paid parental leave and childcare costs.
Thoai Ngo, chair of Columbia University’s department of population and family health, highlighted the increasing pressures on working women to balance family responsibilities with personal and professional aspirations. He noted that the report shifts the focus from alarmist views on population decline to policies that support family growth with dignity and opportunity.
However, Ngo also pointed out that further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between work and family dynamics. The report does not address immigration as a potential solution or the impact of technology on labor dynamics, particularly with the rise of artificial intelligence.
As the world’s population is projected to peak later this century and then decline, many countries, including the United States, are experiencing fertility rates below the replacement level. This trend raises concerns among policymakers about potential economic crises stemming from a shrinking working-age population and an increasing number of retirees requiring support.