The Atlantic hurricane season has commenced quietly, a situation experts deem typical. Since the season began on June 1, no tropical storms have emerged, despite predictions of above-average storm activity this year.
The timing of the first named storm varies; in nearly half of the past 20 years, storms have formed even before June 1. However, on average, the first storm appears around June 20. Last year, for instance, Alberto formed on June 19, while in 2009, the first storm, Ana, did not materialize until August 11.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, noted uncertainty regarding the formation of this year's initial storm.
A storm earns its name when sustained winds reach 39 miles per hour, and it becomes a Category 1 hurricane at 74 m.p.h. Warm ocean waters, specifically temperatures of 80 degrees or above, are essential for storm development. Jason Dunion, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), indicated that many areas across the Atlantic have not yet reached this temperature threshold.
"The waters are still warming, and they’re actually a little bit cooler than last year," Mr. Dunion remarked, highlighting that last year’s record sea surface temperatures contributed to more rapid intensification and destructive hurricanes.
Additionally, Saharan dust from North Africa poses a challenge to storm development by creating a layer of dry air in the atmosphere. This dry air inhibits cloud formation and thunderstorm development. Mr. Dunion described the current dust plume, which extends over 2,500 miles from the central Atlantic to the Caribbean, as significant and unfavorable for hurricane activity.
The trans-Atlantic dust season, which begins in June and diminishes by mid-August, coincides with the usual increase in hurricane activity. Mr. Dunion referred to mid-August as the "switch point."
Wind shear has also been a deterrent to storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico, where tropical storms typically arise during this period. Wind shear refers to the change in wind speed and direction with height, which can disrupt hurricane development.
Both NOAA and Dr. Klotzbach's team had previously forecasted an above-average number of storms for this year. However, if wind shear remains elevated, Dr. Klotzbach indicated he might need to revise his forecast. As of Wednesday, his team maintained their initial expectations.
A typical hurricane season sees about 14 named storms, with NOAA predicting between 13 and 19 for this year, while Dr. Klotzbach's forecast stands at 17.
Should wind shear weaken and a storm move through the Caribbean or the Gulf, Dr. Klotzbach stated, "we certainly have plenty of fuel there to get a robust hurricane."
In contrast, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began on May 15, has experienced a busy start with four storms already formed: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, and Dalila. Both hurricane seasons will continue through November 30.