President Trump has attempted to address concerns from lawmakers regarding the financial implications of a proposed domestic policy bill and its cuts to Medicaid, making claims that have been deemed inaccurate.
As the Senate deliberates on the bill aligned with the White House's agenda, Trump and his supporters have rejected estimates suggesting that the legislation, referred to as the “one big, beautiful bill,” would negatively impact the deficit. They have characterized the proposed cuts to Medicaid, which provides health insurance for low-income Americans, as merely eliminating “waste, fraud, and abuse.”
A fact-check of these assertions reveals discrepancies. Trump stated, “We’re not doing any cutting of anything meaningful. The only thing we’re cutting is waste, fraud, and abuse,” during remarks to reporters on May 20. This claim has been labeled false, as the House-passed bill is projected to decrease federal Medicaid spending by at least $600 billion over the next decade and reduce enrollment by approximately 10.3 million individuals, according to preliminary estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Experts, including Edwin Park, a professor at Georgetown University, indicate that while some provisions may address waste, fraud, and abuse, the majority of the cuts are not related to these issues. Instead, they encompass reductions in Medicaid expansion, restrictions on state financing, increased bureaucratic requirements for beneficiaries, and limitations on access to care.
Specific provisions include allowing states to impose mandatory co-payments for certain medical services and limiting retroactive payments, raising questions about their effectiveness in combating waste or fraud. The largest anticipated savings, estimated at $280 billion, would arise from a new requirement for Medicaid recipients to prove employment, a significant shift from the historically income-based eligibility criteria.
Supporters of the work requirement argue it distinguishes between those who are unwilling to work and those in genuine need, while opponents contend that such measures create barriers for those who already work or have exemptions but struggle with new reporting demands.
In another claim, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the bill would achieve the largest deficit reduction in nearly 30 years, citing $1.6 trillion in mandatory savings. This assertion has also been deemed false, as the CBO and various independent analysts predict that the bill would increase federal deficits by over $1 trillion, with estimates ranging from $1.7 trillion to $3.8 trillion.
Leavitt contended that the CBO had previously underestimated economic growth related to the 2017 tax cuts, but experts argue that the CBO's forecasts have generally been accurate. The CBO's revenue projections have also proven reliable, with actual collections exceeding earlier estimates, primarily due to inflation and economic changes during the pandemic.
Lastly, Speaker Mike Johnson claimed that the bill does not cut Medicaid and that misinformation surrounds the issue, asserting that 1.4 million unauthorized immigrants are enrolled in Medicaid. This statement is incorrect, as unauthorized immigrants are generally ineligible for federally funded Medicaid, except in emergencies. The House bill would also penalize states that provide Medicaid coverage to undocumented children and some adults, potentially leaving 7.6 million individuals uninsured.