Beijing has significantly intervened in Myanmar’s civil war to safeguard its substantial investments in the country, resulting in a setback for resistance forces.
In August, resistance fighters from multiple rebel armies achieved a major victory by capturing the city of Lashio and overtaking a military command center located 75 miles from the Chinese border. Despite facing artillery and airstrikes from the junta, the rebels utilized small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and drones to secure the city, albeit at the cost of over 500 fighters' lives.
However, in a surprising turn of events, resistance forces abandoned Lashio last month without any confrontation, allowing a military convoy of 200 vehicles to reclaim control of the city. Rebel leaders attribute this sudden withdrawal to pressure from China, which has been actively supporting the junta to protect its financial interests in Myanmar, including vital pipelines and infrastructure projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.
To compel the rebels to vacate Lashio, China reportedly blocked border trade, cut off power and internet services in nearby areas, and detained the commander of the main rebel group after he crossed into China. Rebel spokesperson Ni Ni Kyaw remarked on the situation, stating, “China claims not to interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs, but in Lashio, they clearly stepped in and managed the situation directly.”
Despite publicly maintaining a stance of noninterference, China has a history of managing various interests in Myanmar, including supplying arms to both the military and ethnic groups involved in the conflict. Analyst David Mathieson noted that China’s actions indicate a lack of interest in peace, focusing instead on its self-interests.
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army, another ethnic armed group, is resisting China’s demands to retreat from territories it captured near Lashio. Colonel Tar Pan Hla, the group’s general secretary, stated that China has warned against engaging in battles near the border or around pipelines.
This month, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Myanmar’s junta leader, Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, in Moscow, expressing support for Myanmar’s territorial integrity and stability while emphasizing the need to ensure the safety of Chinese investments in the region.
Over the past 18 months, the junta has lost significant ground to resistance forces, which now control more than half of Myanmar’s territory. However, the junta retains control over key urban areas, including major cities and transportation hubs, while the resistance struggles with a lack of advanced weaponry and unified command.
Despite the junta’s inability to defeat the rebels on the battlefield, it has conducted a relentless air campaign against civilians, often using Chinese-made aircraft. Following a devastating earthquake in March, the junta declared a cease-fire but continued airstrikes, resulting in numerous civilian casualties.
The rebels' victory in Shan State was led by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, which has historically received support from China. The group’s control over Lashio was short-lived, as Chinese officials intervened following extensive damage caused by junta airstrikes in the city.
Chinese authorities detained the commander of the Kokang Group after he crossed into China, although the foreign ministry denied any arrest. Chinese officials warned the rebels that continued resistance would lead to further civilian casualties from junta airstrikes and emphasized that the junta could not be allowed to collapse.
As the junta convoy entered Lashio, some vehicles displayed Chinese lettering indicating their role as peace monitors. When questioned about the situation, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated the policy of noninterference while supporting Myanmar’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
During the eight months of control over Lashio, the Kokang Group attempted to improve healthcare by recruiting doctors who had fled from junta-controlled areas. One physician expressed his grief and anger upon witnessing the military's return, reflecting on the sacrifices made by rebel fighters in the battle for the city.