The introduction of attack drones in the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan marks a significant shift in warfare tactics between the two nuclear-armed nations, according to experts.
This development was seen as inevitable due to the global proliferation of armed drones in military operations.
Both countries have been enhancing their drone manufacturing capabilities in recent years, while also importing drones from allied nations. The current deployment of drones, particularly following an attack in the disputed Kashmir region, predominantly features one-way Kamikaze drones, which have become common in the Ukraine conflict and are expected to be a standard weapon in future battlefields.
India has reported the identification of Turkish drones utilized by Pakistan, while Pakistan claims to have identified Israeli drones used by India. However, these claims have not been independently verified.
Indian defense officials stated that Pakistan's military attempted aerial incursions at 36 locations using “300 to 400” drones to test India's air defense systems. Conversely, Pakistan asserted that it had shot down over 70 Indian drones since the escalation began. These accounts also lack independent confirmation.
James Patton Rogers, a drone warfare expert at Cornell University, noted that neither country appears to be deploying drones capable of carrying nuclear warheads. While he described the situation as “incredibly worrying,” he emphasized that drones are typically used as a minimal escalation tactic in conflicts, primarily to probe an opponent's air defenses.
“I’m cautiously optimistic by the fact that the first response is a limited number of drones used,” said Rogers, who is also the executive director of Cornell’s Brooks Tech Policy Institute. He highlighted that both sides are demonstrating their capability to inflict damage politically and militarily.
Currently, at least 118 countries possess drones, a significant increase from approximately 60 nations in 2010, according to Rogers.
While Pakistan has developed several attack drones and loitering munitions, it likely possesses a limited number of drones and imports armed drones from China and Turkey, as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In contrast, India has a more advanced drone industry that includes ground, air, and sea drones, along with purchases from Israel.
Rogers indicated that neither side has likely launched more than 100 drones against each other and cautioned that misinformation could inflate the scale of reported attacks.
Shuja Nawaz, former director at The Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, observed that both nations seem to be using drones to scout each other's weapon systems and test response times, while disregarding international regulations regarding sovereign airspace.
“There will be frustration in their ability to do the kind of damage that they want on the other side, through the use of unmanned aerial weapon systems,” Nawaz stated. He warned that the next phase could involve the use of aircraft and missiles, raising concerns given both countries' nuclear capabilities.