After 12 days of conflict, Iran finds itself largely isolated and weakened in the Middle East, yet it is seeking support from international allies. Beginning Sunday in Rio de Janeiro, Iran will participate in a two-day meeting of the BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other nations. This summit presents an opportunity for Iran, a newcomer to BRICS, to demonstrate its alliances amidst ongoing sanctions and military threats regarding its nuclear program.
Following military strikes on Iran by Israel and the United States last month, the BRICS group issued a statement expressing “grave concern” and labeling the attacks as violations of international law and the United Nations Charter. However, the group refrained from directly criticizing either Israel or the United States.
Internal divisions regarding the appropriate level of condemnation for the strikes have posed challenges for BRICS, which aims to alter global power dynamics as a counterbalance to Western influence. An expert on BRICS noted that there is no consensus on Iran within the group, leading to a more neutral stance in their response.
Founded in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance the influence of major emerging economies. The group's membership has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Unlike NATO's military focus, BRICS emphasizes economic and geopolitical issues but has struggled to achieve significant outcomes, functioning primarily as a symbolic alliance.
Analysts anticipate that Iran will leverage the upcoming summit to secure stronger backing from BRICS, particularly through a communiqué expected to be issued at the meeting's conclusion. While Iran has confirmed participation, details regarding its delegation and potential bilateral discussions with members like Russia and China remain unclear.
The significance of being part of BRICS is crucial for Iran at this juncture. However, differing perspectives on the recent attacks on Iran highlight the complexities arising from the alliance's rapid growth, which includes nations with conflicting views on its role in global affairs.
China and Russia view BRICS as a platform to counter U.S. influence, advocating for the group's expansion. Russia condemned the U.S. strikes on Iran as an “unprovoked act of aggression,” while China called for “restraint” and dialogue. Host nation Brazil condemned the attacks but has sought to maintain good relations with the U.S., its second-largest trading partner.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has faced pressure from Russia and China to position BRICS against the West but has instead promoted the bloc as a means for developing countries to gain a stronger voice. Both India and other members like South Africa and Ethiopia have also been cautious about alienating Western nations.
This is not the first instance of internal discord within BRICS in response to global conflicts. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the group struggled to formulate a unified response, criticizing Western sanctions without addressing Russia's actions in the war.
President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Rio gathering in person due to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, but will participate virtually. Additionally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will skip the summit, with Premier Li Qiang attending in his stead.
As Brazil holds the BRICS presidency, President Lula aims to enhance the country's image as a leader in advocating for fairness in global governance and financial systems. However, analysts suggest that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could complicate efforts to establish a cohesive front within the group.
Concerns have been raised about the potential regression of progress made by BRICS in previous years.