The chief United Nations nuclear inspector has expressed a significant divergence from the Trump administration regarding the impact of U.S. military actions on Iran's nuclear program. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that Iran could resume enriching uranium within a "matter of months," contradicting President Trump's assertion that Tehran has lost interest in its nuclear ambitions.
In a recent interview, Grossi noted that while the U.S. airstrikes on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities caused "severe" damage, it was not "total." He indicated that the majority of the more than 18,000 centrifuges located in underground enrichment halls were either destroyed or rendered inoperable. This assessment aligns with a preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which suggested that the strikes only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months.
Further analysis indicated that the most significant setback for Iran may stem from the destruction of facilities necessary for converting enriched uranium into weapon-grade metal. Damage to a laboratory under construction near Isfahan could hinder Iran's ability to produce the metal required for nuclear weapons. Experts suggest that rebuilding this capability could take years, depending on Iran's decisions regarding IAEA inspections and transparency in its nuclear activities.
President Trump reiterated his belief that the Iranian nuclear program had been effectively dismantled, claiming that the U.S. attack had "obliterated" Iran's facilities. He has threatened legal action against media outlets for reporting on the Defense Intelligence Agency's findings and suggested using the legal system to compel reporters to disclose their sources.
Trump dismissed intelligence assessments indicating that Iran may have relocated parts of its uranium stockpile prior to the U.S. strikes, asserting that such actions would be "very hard" and "very dangerous." However, the IAEA reported that the stockpiles were stored in easily transportable containers, and some U.S. intelligence agencies believe that vehicles seen near Isfahan may have been involved in transferring the stockpile before the attack.
Despite his claims of Iran's disinterest in nuclear development, Trump has expressed a willingness to negotiate with Iran, offering to lift sanctions if the country agrees to halt future enrichment and comply with U.S. demands for inspections. His recent statements suggest a recognition that preventing Iran from resuming its nuclear program may require a diplomatic solution alongside military action.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized the importance of obtaining a comprehensive assessment of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear capabilities. He indicated that Iran likely still possesses stockpiles of enriched uranium and the means to produce more centrifuges, suggesting that a rapid military program could be initiated if Iran decides to pursue nuclear weapons.