Trump Achieved Victory Through Voter Mobilization and Formation of a Diverse Coalition, Report Indicates


A new study from the Pew Research Center reveals that 85 percent of President Trump’s supporters from the 2020 election voted for him again in 2024, surpassing the turnout rate of Democratic voters. This research indicates that Trump's electoral success in 2024 was largely due to the mobilization of his previous supporters rather than converting Democratic voters.

The report, released on Thursday, provides an in-depth examination of the voting patterns from the 2024 election, highlighting that 15 percent of Biden’s supporters did not participate in the election, a significant factor in his overall performance. In contrast, only 3 percent of Trump’s 2020 voters switched their allegiance to Kamala Harris.

Tony Fabrizio, the lead pollster for the Trump campaign, emphasized that the findings validate their campaign strategies aimed at attracting diverse groups, including Black and Hispanic voters. He indicated this report confirms their successful outreach to these demographics, which was previously met with skepticism.

As political analysts continue to scrutinize the factors behind Trump's victory, the Pew report, alongside another study from the Democratic data firm Catalist, uses actual state voting records, offering a clearer picture of the electorate than traditional exit polls.

The findings also indicate a notable decline in Hispanic support for Democrats, reversing a trend seen in previous elections. Trump’s appeal among Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, has significantly increased, with him nearly matching Harris’s support among this group. The report shows his support among Hispanic men shifted from Biden's favor in 2020 to Trump's in 2024.

The Republican coalition has become more diverse, with nonwhite voters making up about 20 percent of Trump’s base, nearly double that of 2016. Trump's increase in support among Black voters, albeit modest, is a striking change given their historical loyalty to the Democratic Party. Trump's share of Black voters rose to 15 percent from 8 percent in 2020.

The report also notes a decline in Harris’s support from Asian voters and a significant shift among voters who were born outside the U.S., who now show a more balanced political preference. Furthermore, younger voters, particularly those from Generation Z, turned out more for Trump, while many Democratic young voters opted to stay home.

In the millennial demographic, 8 percent switched their support from Biden to Trump, contributing to a shift in this group’s voting inclination. The report indicates that men under 50 also leaned more towards Trump in the latest election, showcasing a change from Biden's previous advantage.

Additionally, Trump's support among noncollege-educated voters increased significantly, enhancing his margins among key Republican constituencies. The Pew report posits a complex narrative for Harris, suggesting that even if turnout had been higher among Democrats, Trump would likely have still secured a victory, challenging the conventional belief that higher participation alone guarantees success for Democrats.





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