Negotiating with Tehran presents significant challenges, particularly under time constraints. President Trump’s recent two-week ultimatum raises questions about whether it serves as a genuine diplomatic effort or merely a tactic to prepare for potential military action.
Diplomats experienced in negotiations with Iran often emphasize the lengthy process involved. The Obama-era agreement, which effectively curtailed Iran’s nuclear program, took nearly two years to finalize. After Trump abandoned that deal, the Biden administration spent 15 months attempting to revive it, only for Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to reject the near-final agreement. Given this history, experts are skeptical about what can be achieved in Trump’s two-week timeframe.
Current dynamics differ, however, as Khamenei, while the ultimate authority on foreign policy, is reportedly in hiding, according to American intelligence. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has expressed a willingness to limit nuclear output akin to previous negotiations but has also stated that Iran will not engage in talks while facing military aggression from Israel.
Trump has indicated a focus on the coercive aspects of diplomacy, asserting that Iran has limited time to respond. He dismissed the potential for European mediation, claiming that Iran prefers direct negotiations with the U.S.
The likelihood of a successful agreement remains uncertain, as there is no indication that ongoing discussions between Araghchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will lead to a meeting or a satisfactory deal. Araghchi, a key figure in the 2015 nuclear negotiations, may have limited influence over Khamenei, while Witkoff, though inexperienced in Iranian affairs, has a close relationship with Trump.
Experts note that the current geopolitical climate is unprecedented, with heightened pressure on both Iran and Trump. The nature of any agreement will depend on Trump’s demands, which could range from complete capitulation to a more nuanced halt in nuclear enrichment.
Some analysts suggest that a temporary pause in uranium enrichment could facilitate further negotiations and avert military conflict. However, the urgency of the situation leaves little room for the lengthy diplomatic processes typical of past negotiations.
Araghchi has expressed skepticism regarding the U.S. intentions, suggesting that the talks may have been a facade for Israeli military plans. He emphasized that Iran would not cease nuclear fuel production entirely, viewing it as a matter of national pride.