Experts who study protest movements indicate that the events occurring in California mirror patterns seen in other countries, often leading to severe outcomes.
Recent images from Los Angeles depict demonstrators clashing with police, echoing global instances of protest confrontations. The public unrest in Los Angeles has heightened since the Trump administration initiated immigration raids, prompting President Trump to deploy the National Guard and military forces to the area, with 700 Marines and 4,000 Guard troops expected to arrive by Tuesday.
Researchers focusing on the interplay of protests, politics, and law enforcement observe that a strong governmental response to initially peaceful demonstrations can escalate violence. In various instances, leaders exploit civil unrest to justify heavy-handed measures or consolidate their authority.
Three significant lessons from international protests may provide insight into the current situation in Los Angeles:
1. Crackdowns shape optics, and optics shape uprisings.
State responses to demonstrators influence public perception through images disseminated online and via media coverage. Such visual narratives can either support or undermine governmental actions during unrest. Harsh crackdowns may engender public sympathy for protesters, framing authorities as oppressive. Conversely, violent encounters can shift public sentiment towards the state, especially when images of property damage circulate widely.
Most individuals are not present at protests, leading public perception to be swayed by visually striking incidents, even if the majority of events are peaceful. To maintain favorable public narratives amidst state crackdowns, movements require robust internal organization, a quality often lacking in spontaneous uprisings. Historical examples, such as the protests in Honduras following a disputed election in 2017, illustrate how violence can hinder a movement's narrative and diminish international support.
2. Heavy-handed responses can lead to more violent protests.
State repression frequently incites violence and contributes to larger protest gatherings, transforming issue-specific demonstrations into widespread movements. The instinct to defend oneself against state violence can provoke retaliatory actions. Additionally, crackdowns can expand the protest's scope, as seen in Colombia in 2021, where initial opposition to a tax reform evolved into a broader campaign against police violence following a violent state response. Historical incidents, such as the deaths in Mozambique last year and the arrests during India's 2019 citizenship law protests, further exemplify this trend.
3. Crackdowns can be steppingstones to wider power grabs.
Experts assert that governmental use of force can facilitate authoritarian regimes’ erosion of democratic principles. By breaching established norms to showcase power, governments can justify further crackdowns on institutions and civic protests. The Hong Kong protests demonstrated this pattern, culminating in the imposition of the National Security Law by the Beijing government in 2020. This law granted extensive powers to suppress political activities, effectively stifling pro-democracy movements and restricting free speech.
Amanda Taub contributed reporting.