The countries in the Gulf region have expressed longstanding concerns about being drawn into a regional conflict as they navigate their relationships with Washington, their primary security ally, while also attempting to enhance ties with Tehran.
On Monday, the typically tranquil capital of Qatar, Doha, experienced unprecedented panic when Iran launched over a dozen missiles at a U.S. military base located near the city. Residents witnessed shrapnel falling from the sky, and interceptors colliding with missiles were visible from The Pearl Island, a luxury residential area. Shoppers at the Villaggio Mall were alarmed by loud explosions and rushed for cover.
Lynus Yim, a tourist from Hong Kong, described the chaos, initially fearing a terrorist attack until he saw the missiles. “I thought that I might not make it through yesterday,” he recounted, reflecting on the intensity of the situation.
Although no casualties were reported, the missile attack was a direct response by Iran to recent U.S. bombings of its nuclear sites, raising alarms among Gulf states that have sought to avoid military escalation. Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East geoeconomics expert, noted that the incident left Gulf nations in a precarious position, caught between escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S.
In response to the attack, Gulf foreign ministers convened in Doha for an emergency meeting. The six nations, which depend on the U.S. for security and host a significant American military presence, have not faced warfare on their soil since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Despite their efforts to maintain stability and foster diplomatic relations with Iran, they remain wary of potential security threats.
Qatar and Oman maintain relatively cordial relations with Iran. Following the missile strikes, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed regret to Qatar’s emir. Conversely, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have adopted a more confrontational stance, severing diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016. The United Arab Emirates finds itself in a complex position, balancing concerns over Iran's actions with significant trade relations.
Gulf states are apprehensive about Iran potentially acquiring nuclear capabilities, advocating for diplomatic solutions over military interventions. The sectarian divide, with Sunni-majority royal families wary of Shiite Iran's influence, adds another layer of complexity to regional dynamics.
Recent discussions among Gulf officials highlighted fears that Iran-backed militias could target U.S. forces stationed in their countries, a scenario that would spotlight the substantial American military presence, an issue of sensitivity among local populations. Experts emphasize that the region risks becoming a battleground for larger geopolitical tensions.
Most of the missiles aimed at Qatar were intercepted with U.S. defense systems, and shortly after, Qatar announced its role in facilitating a cease-fire between Iran and Israel. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani expressed hopes for a swift resolution to the crisis.
However, the missile attack underscored the vulnerabilities of Gulf states despite their wealth and security arrangements with the U.S. Warning sirens were activated in Bahrain, and airspace over Dubai was temporarily closed, highlighting the region's precarious security situation.
The incident at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar evoked memories of a 2019 drone attack on Saudi energy facilities, which significantly disrupted oil production and led to a reevaluation of American security guarantees. In light of recent events, Gulf nations have continued to pursue diplomatic engagement with Iran, indicating a potential shift in strategy.
While the attack has raised concerns about reliance on U.S. military support, Gulf leaders are navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing their security needs with aspirations for greater independence in foreign policy. Experts suggest that the U.S. remains a dominant force in the region, complicating the Gulf states' efforts to establish a multipolar approach.