February is typically a slow month for the Greek island of Santorini, which attracts over three million visitors annually. However, following a week of near-constant earthquakes, the island has experienced an unusual quiet, with at least 13,000 of its 15,500 residents leaving due to the ongoing tremors. The streets are largely deserted, with only a few tourists remaining, primarily from Asia.
Since January 25, thousands of tremors have struck Santorini and nearby islands, culminating in a magnitude-5.2 earthquake on Wednesday. A magnitude-5 quake was also felt in Athens on Sunday. Most of the tremors have been minor, but there have been 160 tremors exceeding magnitude 4 in the first nine days of February, compared to 90 of that strength for all of last year, according to Vassilis Karastathis, director of the Institute of Geodynamics at the National Observatory of Athens.
The future of Santorini, a popular tourist destination, remains uncertain. Experts indicate that making reliable predictions about the seismic activity is challenging. “There are signs of stabilization, but we need to see a further drop in the frequency of the tremors to be sure,” Karastathis stated, noting that the quakes could persist for weeks. “A lot of the seismic energy has been released, but we still can’t rule out a large earthquake.”
In response to the situation, authorities have closed schools and prohibited large indoor gatherings. Emergency workers have been dispatched to the island, and landing craft are on standby for potential evacuations. Certain areas of Santorini have been cordoned off due to fears of landslides, and sandbags have been placed next to coastal homes. Psychologists from the Red Cross are providing support to anxious residents, and local priests have held prayers for an end to the quakes.
Following the declaration of a state of emergency last Thursday to expedite aid, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis assured that all necessary actions were being taken. “We’re preparing for the worst while hoping for the best,” he remarked during a visit to the island, urging residents to remain calm.
Many residents chose to evacuate. Giorgos Kalamatas, a local business owner, returned to Athens with his family, citing concerns for their children's safety. Others, like Rena Bledaki, chose to stay behind to care for relatives, despite the risks. Bledaki described spending nights in their car during tremors, highlighting the anxiety felt by residents.
Scientists have indicated that the current fault line causing the earthquakes differs from the one responsible for the devastating 1956 earthquakes, which resulted in significant casualties and damage. The ongoing tremors may represent a “seismic swarm” or could potentially precede a larger earthquake of around magnitude 6, according to Karastathis.
A scientific committee has determined that the seismic activity is not connected to local volcanoes and has ruled out the possibility of an eruption. On Monday, scientists retrieved and installed underwater seismic monitors to gather further data.
Concerns among residents persist, with questions about the potential for significant earthquakes and the structural integrity of their homes. Many locals, employed in the tourism sector, remain on the island despite most hotels being closed, as annual renovations are currently on hold due to the quakes. The environment ministry had previously halted construction in Santorini's caldera due to overdevelopment concerns, prompting hotel operators to conduct risk assessments.
Experts warn that hotels in cliff-side areas could be particularly vulnerable to landslides. Dimitrios Papanikolaou, a geology professor, noted that the foundations of many buildings, made from hardened lava and pumice stone, may not withstand a stronger earthquake. He emphasized the need for safer building practices, recalling discussions from a similar quake swarm in 2011 that ultimately led to no significant actions being taken.